2012 Predictions Ricky Style
OK so in continuing tradition, I wasn’t on the 2012 Predictions podcast. So I have decided to make them here. I decided that I wouldn’t be on the fence for any of my decisions, where’s the fun in that? I’ve decided to put a stick in the ground and let the chips fall how they may.
1. iPad 3
The iPad 3 will launch in March, it will be thinner, lighter with better battery life. It will have Retina Display which will blow the door off the competition’s hinges. The iPhone 4s was a success in numbers but Tim Cook is looking for that WOW factor to set everyone’s mind at ease about his job as CEO.
2. iPhone 5
It will return to the normal summer launch. It will have a bigger 4″ screen, unibody design and be faster, thinner, lighter with better battery life. It will have iOS 6 bringing new features and a totally redesigned OS.
3. RIM
This year RIM will cut the price of the Playbook to $99 in an attempt to get traction in the tablet space and get developers interested. The co-CEOs will be put into some figurehead role collecting money and a new CEO will be brought onboard. The stocks will rally when this happens but it will be an uphill battle. The Playbook 2 will be revealed, and have a late launch with the same form factor. RIM will co-license patents with Google and switch the Playbook 2 totally to Android while they take BBX back to the drawing board and try to get it right this time.
4. Android
Android will anger more users this year as manufacturers bring out new devices obsoleting months old models. Some manufacturers will pull out of Android and some new yummy codenamed version will be released. I am going with RedVelvet for the next Android codename. It will continue to be projected as taking a large part of the market while no one really sees a profit or more people with the handsets.
5. 3G iPod Touch
I continue to beleive there will be a 3G iPod Touch. It just makes so much sense but I don’t think Apple will do it until the price hit is negligible enough that it is just a blip on the price. Now that 4G/LTE is all the rage I think they will be able to do a 3G Touch. The price will stay the same but it will be a blockbuster hit and the hook for the younger generation to iOS and by extension iPhone.
6. Kodak disappears
Kodak, what Kodak? The polaroid will become all but a forgotten memory of a once great company.
7. Hard drives
I saw that Victorinox has shown at CES a 1TB storage device that fits in the size of a USB drive. There will be 4,8 and 10TB hard drives. As usual they will be very expensive and aimed at Enterprise first.
8. Thunderbolt
Again there are quite a few Thunderbolt devices being shown at CES. I think this year Thunderbolt will make a bigger splash as it fights to gain use against the slowly gaining USB 3 standard. The devices will be very costly at first like anything else but the stand out things like plugin videocards that enable a laptop to use desktop videocards would be revolutionary.
9. Windows 8
Windows 8 will be great for tablets and bring even more pressure for RIM. The manufacturers will bungle it and the tablets will suck but one manufacturer will make a gem of a tablet and an iPad competitor. Everyone will become afraid that it is the Windows vs Mac playing out all over again but hopefully Apple will stand steadfast and not start making crazy iPads in different sizes and flavors. The desktop version of the OS will suck and people will compare it to Vista as Microsoft finally listens to their users but the changes will come as a Windows 8.5 named Windows 9.
10. Tim Cook aint going nowhere
Tim Cook was chosen by Steve Jobs for a reason. It isn’t like Steve has chosen from new applicants in a desperate fight against time. They have worked together for years very closely, which means Tim Cook must have learned many things. Apple has great designers and the formula of controlling the hardware, software and customer experience hasn’t changed. He will make mis-steps, every CEO does, I think Sir Jony Ive will perhaps play a larger part, an unofficial title like a co-CEO or supporting CEO.
No Apple TV? For me this will be the BIGGEST tech news of 2012 as far as Apple is concerned! iPad 3 and iPhone 5 are pretty much a given considering Apple's cycle of product releases. Sad about Kodak - especially when you compare their fate to that of Fuji. Fuji has innovated and kept re-inventing itself, Kodak lost its way years ago. For me personally, the death of Kodachrome was the beginning of the end.
RIM will go the way of Kodak if you ask me - its a question of not if but when. Unless they re-invent themselves as a phone company that is. Trying to be Apple on the Tablet front is a no-win game. Stick to business phones and get that right and they have a chance. Personally I give them 2 -3 years at most.
Android - for me folk will start to realise the weaknesses outweigh the strengths. Without Google's deep pockets it wouldn't be where it is. It can't compete with Apple on innovation as a platform and its too segmented to succeed long-term. Too many diverse strands - like Linux, parts may be great but as a whole it will ultimately remain a niche area. Unless Google gets more like Apple and reigns in the platform, creating a more unified platform its never going to beat Apple.
Thunderbolt - the combination of Apple and Intel will see Thunderbolt go from strength to strength. More Thunderbolt devices and the demise of Fire-Wire first, followed by DisplayPort and finally USB.
That's my view, for what its worth.
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